Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 23.301937 25.373393 27.613507 30.227840 33.210167 36.524187 40.510369
2025-12-07 19.943781 22.751209 26.001261 30.088039 35.156774 41.329234 49.562620
2025-12-14 17.544727 20.714369 24.576829 29.725720 36.563262 45.569189 58.763824
2025-12-21 16.418944 19.977606 24.516550 30.900779 39.949441 52.836254 73.675459
2025-12-28 15.060398 18.737937 23.591980 30.708029 41.331267 57.472653 85.923613
2026-01-04 14.025314 17.786845 22.901284 30.679122 42.851855 62.510532 100.238743
2026-01-11 13.296890 17.162978 22.566889 31.076413 45.021740 68.970353 119.259574
2026-01-18 12.530450 16.406501 21.948176 30.931564 46.242386 73.995065 137.312100
2026-01-25 11.829691 15.680716 21.295585 30.633204 47.118602 78.529121 156.169227
2026-02-01 11.269043 15.112616 20.822322 30.555181 48.345471 83.997994 179.923753
2026-02-08 10.729643 14.535069 20.280844 30.291007 49.167592 88.799060 204.516324
2026-02-15 10.232314 13.986687 19.738778 29.960256 49.797868 93.319929 231.088167
2026-02-22 9.771603 13.473651 19.226628 29.650353 50.469335 98.243084 263.102618
2026-03-01 9.375988 13.038789 18.810840 29.473387 51.395838 104.096780 303.847788
2026-03-08 8.978456 12.577884 18.319010 29.105170 51.859128 108.917486 345.426284
2026-03-15 8.879154 12.584015 18.608034 30.238044 55.828704 124.747585 460.600758
2026-03-22 8.563246 12.221016 18.237783 30.048311 56.725811 131.933562 541.721293
2026-03-29 8.296899 11.924641 17.962783 30.019126 58.005004 140.850338 653.447596
2026-04-05 8.112659 11.753614 17.895879 30.403763 60.380879 154.503409 841.886787
2026-04-12 7.863452 11.460961 17.591564 30.263168 61.388651 163.776713 1025.961708
2026-04-19 7.609664 11.148721 17.232917 29.973869 61.959598 171.722777 1234.244757
2026-04-26 7.401134 10.904095 16.983822 29.898198 63.110067 182.669137 1556.237685
2026-05-03 7.181354 10.630545 16.665520 29.642064 63.717126 191.700548 1927.498861